原油期貨飆升 布倫特5月合約上漲近2%

據(jù)3月1日 Oil Now 報(bào)道，3月1日亞洲早盤(pán)原油期貨大幅上漲，油市扭轉(zhuǎn)前一交易日跌幅，在美國(guó)眾議院批準(zhǔn)美國(guó)進(jìn)一步財(cái)政救濟(jì)后，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好情緒籠罩市場(chǎng)，即使交易商繼續(xù)關(guān)注即將到來(lái)的歐佩克+會(huì)議。

新加坡時(shí)間上午10:44(格林威治標(biāo)準(zhǔn)時(shí)間0244)，ICE布倫特五月合約比2月26日結(jié)算價(jià)上漲1.14美元(1.77%)，至65.56美元/桶，而4月紐約商品交易所原油合約上漲1.07美元(1.74%)，至62.57美元/桶。

今天上午的油價(jià)上漲標(biāo)志著油價(jià)從2月26日的下跌中復(fù)蘇，當(dāng)時(shí)布倫特和紐約商品交易所原油基準(zhǔn)分別下跌2.56%和3.19%，原因是美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率上升迅速推高了美元。

不過(guò)，油價(jià)今早扭轉(zhuǎn)跌勢(shì)，美國(guó)眾議院批準(zhǔn)了1.9萬(wàn)億美元的擴(kuò)張性COVID-19刺激計(jì)劃，其中包括直接支付、失業(yè)救濟(jì)和COVID-19疫苗接種計(jì)劃的資金，刺激了油價(jià)的復(fù)蘇。目前，該方案正在等待美國(guó)參議院的批準(zhǔn)。

人們廣泛預(yù)期美國(guó)的財(cái)政減免措施將刺激美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，提高對(duì)石油和能源的需求。

AXI首席全球市場(chǎng)策略師Stephen Innes在3月1日的一份說(shuō)明中表示，“油價(jià)今早與多數(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)同步回升，因美國(guó)刺激法案在眾議院通過(guò)，且各國(guó)央行繼續(xù)劍走偏鋒，以抵御市場(chǎng)暗示的金融緊縮?！?/span>

盡管出臺(tái)了刺激方案，但市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)在為石油需求前景的改善而開(kāi)心，這是由于疫苗的迅速推出和全球主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體新冠肺炎疫情病例的減少。

市場(chǎng)目前正密切關(guān)注3月4日的歐佩克+會(huì)議，預(yù)計(jì)該會(huì)議將為聯(lián)盟未來(lái)的生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃提供指導(dǎo)。

市場(chǎng)分析師普遍預(yù)計(jì)英國(guó)石油聯(lián)盟將宣布在3月份的基礎(chǔ)上增產(chǎn)，但供應(yīng)的大幅增加可能會(huì)令市場(chǎng)恐慌，導(dǎo)致價(jià)格向下變動(dòng)。

無(wú)論如何，市場(chǎng)分析人士認(rèn)為，預(yù)期需求上升應(yīng)該能夠適應(yīng)歐佩克+供應(yīng)的緩和增長(zhǎng)。

Innes說(shuō)：“3月4日的歐佩克+會(huì)議是一個(gè)不可或缺因素，生產(chǎn)商面臨的棘手任務(wù)是整理各種活動(dòng)，形成一個(gè)皆大歡喜的戰(zhàn)略。但是我們不得不說(shuō)需要更多的供應(yīng)進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)，才能確保歐佩克+滿足不斷增長(zhǎng)的需求，并且保持內(nèi)部紀(jì)律?！?/span>

馮于榮 摘譯自 Oil Now

原文如下：

Crude oil futures surge, ICE Brent May contract up almost 2%

Crude oil futures surged during the mid-morning trade in Asia March 1, with the oil market reversing the previous session’s losses as risk-on sentiment gripped the markets following the US House of Representatives’ approval of further US fiscal relief, even as traders continued to eye the upcoming OPEC+ meeting.

At 10:44 am Singapore time (0244 GMT), the ICE Brent May contract was up by $1.14/b (1.77%) from the Feb. 26 settle to $65.56/b, while the April NYMEX light sweet crude contract was up by $1.07/b (1.74%) to $62.57/b.

The rise in oil prices this morning marks a recovery from the slide in prices seen on Feb. 26, when the Brent marker and NYMEX light sweet crude marker fell 2.56% and 3.19% respectively due to the rising US Treasury yields rapidly pushing up the dollar.

Oil prices however, reversed their losses this morning, with the recovery galvanized by the US House’s approval of an expansive $1.9 trillion COVID-19 stimulus package, which includes direct payments, unemployment benefits and funds for COVID-19 vaccination programmes. The package is now pending approval from US Senate.

Fiscal relief in the US is widely expected to energize the US economic recovery, improving demand for oil and energy.

“Oil prices are recovering this morning in line with most risk assets on the back of the US stimulus bill passing the House, and as central banks continue to sabre rattle to ward off market-implied financial tightening,” Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at AXI, said in a March 1 note.

The stimulus package notwithstanding, the market was already celebrating an improved demand outlook for oil, caused by a rapid roll-out of vaccines, and the abatement of the coronavirus cases in major economies around the world.

The market is now looking intently towards the March 4 OPEC+ meeting, which is expected to offer guidance into the coalition’s production plan going forward.

Market analysts generally expect the coalition to announce an increase in production from March levels but have cautioned that a large increase in supply could spook the markets, leading to a downward price correction.

Regardless, market analysts believe that the expected uptick in demand should be able to accommodate a moderate increase in OPEC+ supply.

“OPEC+ meeting on March 4 is an increasingly essential ingredient, and producers face the tricky task of sorting through the various moving parts to form a strategy that makes everyone happy. But let’s not beat around the bush; more supply needs to come onto the market to ensure OPEC+ meets incremental demand and keeps internal discipline ducks in a row,” said Innes.