EIA:汽油價(jià)格可能達(dá)到3年來(lái)的最高水平

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)4月7日消息稱，美國(guó)能源情報(bào)署在今年的夏季燃料展望中稱，今年夏天汽油價(jià)格可能觸及三年來(lái)最高水平。

該機(jī)構(gòu)表示，預(yù)計(jì)新冠對(duì)美國(guó)燃料市場(chǎng)的影響將持續(xù)，但比去年有所減弱。他指出，疫苗接種活動(dòng)和聯(lián)邦政府的刺激措施勢(shì)必會(huì)加強(qiáng)該國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，并作為其中的一部分，刺激更大的燃料需求。

因此，EIA預(yù)測(cè)今年夏季汽油均價(jià)可能為2.78美元/加侖，高于去年的2.07美元/加侖。EIA指出，去年的駕駛季平均水平是2004年以來(lái)的最低水平，因?yàn)樾鹿谄茐牧诵枨蟆?/span>

該機(jī)構(gòu)還表示，盡管今年基準(zhǔn)原油價(jià)格將高于去年，但由于需求的增長(zhǎng)，預(yù)計(jì)煉油利潤(rùn)將提高。美國(guó)能源情報(bào)署預(yù)計(jì)，今年夏季的平均煉油利潤(rùn)率將比2020年夏季的平均水平高出0.09美元/加侖，為0.45美元/加侖。

EIA稱，預(yù)計(jì)今年8月汽油消費(fèi)量將觸及910萬(wàn)桶/日的季節(jié)性峰值。這將大大高于去年8月記錄的850萬(wàn)桶/天，但仍低于2019年8月新冠前的980萬(wàn)桶/天的水平。

EIA稱，受疫情影響，汽油消費(fèi)的上行潛力仍然有限。盡管創(chuàng)造了數(shù)十萬(wàn)個(gè)新工作崗位，這通常意味著更多的出行和更高的汽油需求，但許多人可能會(huì)繼續(xù)在家工作，因?yàn)樵S多公司仍保持謹(jǐn)慎，或采用混合工作模式。

EIA表示：“盡管隨著越來(lái)越多的美國(guó)人接種疫苗且病例水平下降，與COVID-19相關(guān)的旅行建議和社會(huì)限制可能會(huì)在夏季得到緩解，但某些行為上的改變可能會(huì)更加持久，這可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步限制汽油消費(fèi)量的增長(zhǎng)。這些行為變化的程度將導(dǎo)致EIA對(duì)汽油消費(fèi)預(yù)測(cè)的不確定性。”

曹海斌 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

EIA: Gas Prices At the Pump Could Hit 3-Year High

Gasoline prices could hit the highest in three years this summer, the Energy Information Administration said in this year’s edition of its Summer Fuels Outlook.

The authority said it expected the impact of the pandemic on fuel markets in the United States to remain but weaken from last year, noting the vaccination drive and the federal government stimulus measures that are bound to reinforce the economic recovery of the country and, as part of it, spur greater fuel demand.

As a result, the EIA forecast gasoline prices could average $2.78 per gallon this summer, up from $2.07 per gallon last year. Last year’s average for the driving season was the lowest since 2004, the EIA noted, because of the pandemic, which destroyed demand.

The authority also said it expected refining margins to improve thanks to this improving demand, even though benchmark crude oil prices will be higher this year than last. At $0.45 per gallon, the average refining margin the EIA projected for this summer would be $0.09 per gallon higher than the average for summer 2020.

The EIA said it expected gasoline consumption to hit a seasonal peak of 9.1 million bpd this August. This would be substantially higher than the 8.5 million bpd it recorded for August last year but still lower than pre-pandemic levels, at 9.8 million bpd for August 2019.

The upside potential in gasoline consumption remains limited because of the pandemic, the EIA said. Despite the creation of hundreds of thousands of new jobs, which would typically mean more commuting and therefore higher gasoline demand, many people are likely to continue working from home as many companies remain cautious or adopt a hybrid work model.

“Although COVID-19 related travel recommendations and social restrictions are likely to ease over the summer as more Americans are vaccinated and case levels fall, some behavioral changes might be more lasting, which could further limit increases in gasoline consumption,” the EIA said. “The degree to which these behavioral changes will occur contributes to the uncertainty in EIA’s gasoline consumption forecast.”?