東南亞面臨油價(jià)風(fēng)暴

據(jù)7月7日Hydrocarbon Engineering報(bào)道，在過(guò)去7個(gè)多月的時(shí)間里，世界從擔(dān)心200美元/桶原油的毀滅性前景，到經(jīng)歷同樣災(zāi)難性的現(xiàn)實(shí)：大宗商品暴跌至負(fù)40美元。

去年9月，無(wú)人機(jī)炸毀了沙特阿拉伯的大型石油設(shè)施。變化無(wú)常的石油市場(chǎng)迅速遭到拋售。但就在全世界都以為已經(jīng)逃脫了災(zāi)難的時(shí)候，疫情爆發(fā)了。今年第一季度，疫情已經(jīng)導(dǎo)致全球貿(mào)易和大多數(shù)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯。

國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)稱，今年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)將萎縮3%，并將遭受自1929年大蕭條以來(lái)最嚴(yán)重的危機(jī)，損失高達(dá)9萬(wàn)億美元。

值得注意的是，亞洲開(kāi)發(fā)銀行(ADB)預(yù)計(jì)，未來(lái)兩年，東南亞能源過(guò)剩和能源匱乏的經(jīng)濟(jì)體將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。其在4月初和國(guó)際貨幣基金組織報(bào)告同時(shí)發(fā)布了相對(duì)樂(lè)觀的預(yù)測(cè)，預(yù)計(jì)疫情的影響將在第二季度達(dá)到峰值，并在2020年下半年逐步恢復(fù)正常。

隨著布倫特原油價(jià)格從2019年的平均66美元/桶跌至4月底的不到20美元/桶，文萊、印度尼西亞、馬來(lái)西亞和越南等地區(qū)的能源生產(chǎn)國(guó)今年的油氣出口收入可能會(huì)減少至多70%。4月20日，美國(guó)基準(zhǔn)原油西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)跌至- 40美元/桶的歷史新低。

對(duì)于能源凈進(jìn)口國(guó)柬埔寨、老撾、緬甸、新加坡、菲律賓和泰國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，廉價(jià)石油和天然氣帶來(lái)的好處將被出口大幅放緩和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩的沖擊所抵消。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Hydrocarbon Engineering

原文如下：

Southeast Asia: riding the oil price storm

In just over seven months, the world went from fearing the devastating prospects of crude oil at US$200/bbl to experiencing the equally devastating reality of the commodity’s collapse to minus US$40.

The world economy was to have gone up in flames last September when drones blew up giant oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.

That did not materialise – for now at least – and the fickle oil markets quickly sold off.

The world economy will shrink by 3% this year and lose up to US$9 trillion for its worst meltdown since the Great Depression of 1929, said the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

ADB vs the IMF

Remarkably, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects Southeast Asia’s mix of energy-surplus and energy-deficient economies to continue to grow over the next two years. Its relatively upbeat forecast, published in early April at the same time as the IMF’s report, largely assumes COVID-19’s impact will peak in the second quarter, with a gradual return to normality in the second half of 2020.

With the Brent crude price plunging from an average US$66/bbl in 2019 to under US$20/bbl in late April, the region’s energy producers Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam could have their oil and gas export earnings slashed by as much as 70% this year. The US benchmark crude, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), fell to a new record low of minus US$40/bbl on 20 April.

For net energy importers Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Singapore, Philippines and Thailand, the benefit of cheaper oil and gas will be offset by the shock of sharply weaker exports and lower economic growth.